Time to Reevaluate the True Cost of Shrink

Feed is the largest operating cost on most dairies, and one of the most underestimated drivers of that cost is shrink — feed you pay for that never becomes milk. Shrink isn’t just silage spoilage or a little wind loss. It can also show up as overfeeding, mixing variance, inventory errors, handling losses, and inconsistent procedures that quietly add up day after day.

Because Nobis Agri Science is directly involved in feed ordering management and delivery, we see shrink from both sides: what gets purchased, what gets delivered, what gets loaded, what gets mixed, and what actually ends up in front of cows. When those numbers don’t line up, it’s rarely “one big mistake.” It’s usually a system that has small leaks in multiple places.

Shrink is a management variable, not just “the cost of doing business”

Most farms accept shrink as inevitable. The problem is that it’s often not measured with enough accuracy to manage it confidently and that creates frustration between accounting, the nutrition program, and the feed system.

When shrink isn’t clearly defined and tracked, it leads to:

• Ration costs that don’t match what you expected
• Purchasing decisions based on “best guesses”
• Inventory that never seems to reconcile
• Cash-flow surprises because usage rates are unclear

The common sources of shrink we see

Shrink comes from both environmental and human factors. The “usual suspects” get attention (spoilage, refusals, wind), but other types can be just as expensive over time.

1) Wind and handling losses: On windy days, fine-textured ingredients can disappear fast and it’s often your highest-cost items: fats, minerals, additives, certain proteins, and premixes.

• Practical fixes: covered handling, improved commodity bay practices, ingredient form changes (when appropriate), and tighter loading/delivery procedures.

2) Spoilage at the face and in storage: Spoilage is more than “feed thrown away.” It’s a triple hit:

• the value of discarded feed
• reduced intake consistency
• higher health risk from compromised feed
• Practical fixes: face management, packing/covering discipline, pitch-off strategy, and clear standards for what gets fed versus removed.

3) Refusals and overfeeding: Refusals can be an intentional strategy — but when refusals aren’t weighed and tracked consistently, you lose the ability to know true intake and true cost.

• Practical fixes: consistent refusal targets, routine weigh-backs, and clear “who/when/how” procedures.

4) Inventory and data-entry error: Software only helps if the data is right. Visual estimates, “eyeballing” inventory, and inconsistent entry create error that’s hard to see — until it shows up as unexplained cost.

• Practical fixes: routine inventory checks, standardized units, tighter receiving/delivery reconciliation, and consistent processes.

5) Mixing variance (the hidden shrink): Mixing error costs money in two ways:

• direct over-inclusion (higher ration cost)
• indirect performance loss when the ration isn’t what it was designed to be
• Practical fixes: scale calibration, equipment checks, feeder pacing, and defining “acceptable variance” by ingredient type.

How Nobis Agri Science reduces shrink through ordering + delivery

Shrink reduction isn’t only about what happens at the feedbunk — it starts upstream with accurate forecasting and disciplined execution.

To help prevent over-ordering, missed deliveries, and last-minute scrambling, Nobis Agri Science uses estimation software that calculates cow numbers, feeding rates, and load sizes. This allows us to deliver your custom dairy supplement on schedule without waste, aligning what you need with what we produce and deliver.

In practice, that means we focus on:

• Purchasing and production accuracy: ordering and manufacturing tied to real usage rates, not guesswork
• Right-sized loads: trailer and tote/bag quantities built around your feeding rate and delivery cadence
• On-schedule deliveries: fewer “emergency” situations that often lead to rushed decisions and waste
• Delivery reconciliation: consistent checks so delivered tonnage matches what was planned
• Inventory discipline: tighter starting inventory + deliveries − usage tracking so numbers make sense

Start small: a 1–2 point shrink improvement matters

You don’t need a major overhaul to get results. On many farms, reducing shrink by even 1–2 percentage points can justify the time spent tightening procedures, calibrating equipment, and improving tracking.

The bottom line

Shrink reduction is about more than saving feed. It’s about building a more accurate, consistent, and profitable feeding program where ration cost, inventory, and performance tell the same story.

By: Nobis Agri Science, FEB 2026